Friday, 7 October 2016

Japanese Candlestick Charts Explained


A Japanese candlestick chart is a form of bar-chart used to plot price movements of a derivative, security, or currency over time.

Candlestick charts are believed to have been developed in the 18thcentury by Munehisa Homma, Japanese rice trader in the futures market.

In Homma’s book “The Fountain of Gold – The Three Monkey Record of Money”, which he wrote in 1755, he claims that the psychological aspect of the market crucial to trading success and that traders’ emotions can significantly influence on rice prices. In his book, he observes that this fact can be used to position oneself against the market when all are bearish, because at that specific time there is a likelihood that prices will rise (and vice versa).

Candlesticks are composed of the Real Body, which is black or white and represents the area between the open and the close, and an upper and a lower shadow (“wick” or “tail”) which illustrate price excursions above and below the real body.

The wick illustrates the highest and lowest traded prices of a security during the represented timeframe. The body shows the opening and closing trade prices. If the security closed higher than it opened, the body is white or unfilled, with the opening price at the bottom of the body and the closing price at the top. If the security closed lower than it opened, the body is black, with the opening price at the top and the closing price at the bottom.

Modern candlestick charts often replace the black or white of the candlestick body with colors such as red (for a lower closing) and blue or green (for a higher closing). In some East Asian countries such as Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea, the coloring scheme is reversed (red for higher closing, and green/blue for a lower closing).

A candlestick portrays the battle between Bulls (buyers) and Bears (sellers) over a given period of time.
In general, the longer the body is, the buying or selling pressure is more extreme.  The longer the white candlestick is the close is further above the open. This suggests that buyers were aggressive and prices increased significantly from the opening price to the closing price.
On the other hand, short candlestick body shows less price movement and represents price consolidation. The longer the black candlestick is the close is further below the open. This suggests that sellers were aggressive and prices decreased significantly from the opening price to the closing price.
Marubozu candlesticks are candlesticks that do not have upper or lower shadows and the high and low are exactly the open or close. The name is derived from “close-cropped” or “close-cut” in Japanese. A White Marubozu indicates that buyers controlled the price action from the first trade to the last trade and is considered bullish. A Black Marubozu indicates that sellers controlled the price action from the first trade to the last trade and is considered bearish.
The upper and lower candlesticks shadows provide information about the trading session high and low.
Japanese Candlestick Charts Infographic

The upper wick indicates the session high and the lower wick indicates the session low. Candlesticks with short wicks indicate that most of the trading action was close to near the open and close. Candlesticks with long wicks show that prices extended well beyond the open and close.

Candlesticks with a long upper wick and short lower wick indicate that buyers dominated during the session, and bid prices higher. However afterwards sellers forced prices down, and the weak close created a long upper shadow. On the other hand, candlesticks with long lower wicks and short upper wicks indicate that sellers dominated during the session and drove prices lower. However, buyers later bid prices higher close to the end of the session and the strong close created a long lower wick.

Spinning Tops are candlesticks that have small bodies with upper and lower shadows that are longer than the length of the body. Spinning tops signal market uncertainty. The small Real Body shows little movement from open to close, and the long shadows indicate that both bulls and bears were active during the session.

Doji Candlesticks are formed when a security’s open and close are virtually equal. Doji represents a sense of uncertainty or tug of war between buyers and sellers. Prices move above and below the opening level during the trading session, however close at or close to the opening level. This results in a standoff between bulls and bears.

Candlesticks do not show the sequence of events between the open and close.  The high and the low are plotted, however candlesticks and bar charts do not show us which came first. 

Written by: Trading Growth

It will be easier to read the charts,
what would you like to add on this?

Warren Buffet Investment Quotes


Warrren Buffet Investment Quotes


From: Visually 

What's your biggest take away from Warren Buffet's quotes?

Thursday, 6 October 2016

Greed vs Loss: How Take Profit Levels Can Help




The forex market moves fast — and so do emotions.
It can be difficult to separate your emotions from forex trading entirely; as everyone gets a little stressed when a trade is going poorly and a little too aggressive when a trade is going well. This is human nature. Your trading plan can quite easily be disrupted and turn into a battle of greed versus loss.
This is why take profit levels are vital. Take profit levels are often incorporated into forex strategies in order to defeat the natural human inclination to allow a trade to ride when it is performing well. Many traders will feel as though it’s best to wait while a trade continues to take the most amount of profit possible. But this can also lead to a situation in which profit is actually lost because of a sudden downturn.
Try reading: When to Demo Trading to a Live Account
Here’s everything you need to know about how take profit levels can help…

Setting Up Different Take Profit Levels

You may know what a “take profit” is, but what is a take profit level?
When you set a take profit, you set a specific price at which the trade should close. This is used to capture your profit automatically the second that the price hits that number. A take profit level is the price level at which a take profit action occurs. Take profit levels are multiple, staggered levels that are used to control a trade.
take-profit-levels-example
A single currency trade may have multiple take profit levels — usually done by creating multiple trades in the same direction. For instance, there may be a take profit action set at every increase at 20 pip intervals. These take profits are designed to capture profit as quickly and reliably as possible. The first take profit level will generally be initiated quickly, making the trade profitable early on.
Take profits are generally mixed with stop losses as well, so that there is more room for profit and less room for loss. All of this creates a reliable trade management strategy that completely removes emotion from the equation.

The Emotional Benefits in your Trading

Forex strategies need to be consistent if they are to be profitable. That being said, every trader occasionally has an emotional moment, during which they may either close a trade early or let it ride.
emotion trading
If you have an inconsistent trading strategy, there’s no way to improve upon it. Though you may be able to make money short-term, you won’t know what portion of your strategy is actually working or not. Eventually you will find that your strategy turns; it’s impossible to maintain consistent results with inconsistent trading.
Take profit levels completely remove the potential for an emotional impact on trading. Rather than having to make a snap decision regarding when you will take profit on a trade, it will already be set for you — all you need to do is avoid deviating from the plan and changing the trade itself. In fact, with the appropriate take profit and stop loss levels set, you don’t even need to manage your trading; you simply need to initiate new trades and work towards an even more profitable trading strategy.

The Market Benefit of Take Profit Levels

Take profit levels aren’t just about your emotional status. Some traders aren’t emotional and are more than able to control themselves when they’re dealing with the forex market. But there are some things that are simply beyond human ability.
Tracking the forex market in real-time can be one of these things.
The forex market changes very quickly and this can be even more true if you’re trading a currency pair during a time of particularly high volatility. It’s possible that a level of profit could be hit upon very suddenly and then lost entirely thereafter; in other words, the market can spike suddenly and then retreat.
forex volatility
If you’re relying upon your own reflexes, you’ll need to watch the market constantly and you’ll have to be able to react very quickly to the market change. You could potentially miss your chance and a profitable trade could become a losing one.
This can be avoided through the use of a take profit of course.
A take profit will capture your profit even if the take profit amount is only held for a brief moment. You won’t need to watch the market or your account 24/7; instead you’ll be able to trust that the trade will close exactly when you want it to.
A take profit level also enables you to use far more complex strategies. It can be impossible to track multiple currency pairs and multiple take profit levels, which means that you may have to take profit only once if you’re relying on yourself to close the trade.
By setting automated take profit levels, you streamline the forex marketing monitoring process and take the burden off of yourself.

Identifying Your Take Profit Levels

How do you determine which take profit levels you use?
It differs for each strategy. Most take profit levels are staggered, with three to four take profit levels focused on the lower limit and upper limit of what you believe the currency pair will hit. But the analysis that is generally used to determine a take profit can be quite complex, based on a variety of key performance indicators and strategies.
trading strategy
For instance, in a support and resistance strategy, the take profit may be set a little above the current market price, a little under the resistance price, and in between. This would secure profit just as the trade moved upwards and as the trade met its resistance price — in addition to the area between these two. Even if the trade never met its resistance price, at least two of the take profits may still be initiated. The stop loss would then be set to still ensure a profitable trade even in the event that this occurred.
See our guide on choosing a trading strategy for help.
Of course, it’s very difficult for traders — both new and accomplished — to determine their own take profit levels, even if they are very knowledgeable about analysis and strategy.

This is where forex trading signals often come in…

Live forex trading signals tell the trader exactly how to initiate their trade, including which take profit levels and stop loss levels they should use. These signals use a significant amount of analysis and past market behavior to determine the way that the currency trade will likely go. They are able to use their algorithms to find the most profitable trades, which includes both take profit levels and stop losses.
For many traders, live forex signals are the best way to trade without having to invest a significant amount of time into the process.

To put it simple, Use Take Profit Levels!

Regardless of what technical analysis and what strategy a trader may be using, take profit levels are an intelligent way to trade.
A take profit level ensures that the investor will be able to capture profit according to their plan. Many trading signals incorporate take profits for just this reason. Take profit levels free up an investor to step away from the computer and to trust that their trades are being closed as they should be.
Avoid the temptation of emotional and irrational trading by not engaging in the battle of greed versus loss. Start using take profit levels in your trading from today. 

Written by 


Placing Take Profits is equally important as placing Stop Loss,
what else do you suggest on this?  

Paul Tudor Jones II: Why we need to Rethink Capitalism



would you explore rethinking capitalism?

Ten Lessons I Have Learned in Working With Traders


When I sat down to write this article, I thought it would be challenging—but useful—to distill over 20 years of trading experience—and 25 years of specializing in brief therapy—into ten lessons that I have learned while working with traders (including myself!). In that time, I’ve written two books on trading and worked with dozens of professional traders at a proprietary trading firm. What has this taught me? Let’s break it down:
1. Trading affects psychology as much as psychology affects trading – This was really the motivating factor behind my writing the new book. Many traders experience stress and frustration because they are trading poorly and lack a true edge in the marketplace. Working on your emotions will be of limited help if you are putting your money at risk and don’t truly have an edge.
2. Emotional disruption is present even among the most successful traders – A trading method that produces 60% winners will experience four consecutive losses 2-3% of the time and as much time in flat performance as in an uptrending P/L curve. Strings of events (including losers) occur more often by chance than traders are prepared for.
3. Winning disrupts the trader’s emotions as much as losing – We are disrupted when we experience events outside our expectation. The method that is 60% accurate will experience four consecutive winners about 13% of the time. Traders are just as susceptible to overconfidence during profitable runs as underconfidence during strings of losers.
4. Size kills – The surest path toward emotional damage is to trade size that is too large for one’s portfolio. We experience P/L in relation to our portfolio value. When we trade too large, we create exaggerated swings of winning and losing, which in turn create exaggerated emotional swings.
5. Training is the path to expertise – Think of every performance field out there—sports, music, chess, acting—and you will find that practice builds skills. Trading, in some ways, is harder than other performance fields because there are no college teams or minor leagues for development. From day one, we’re up against the pros. Without training and practice, we will lack the skills to survive such competition.
6. Successful traders possess rich mental maps – All successful trading boils down to pattern recognition and the development of mental maps that help us translate our perceptions of patterns into concrete trading behaviors. Without such mental maps, traders become lost in complexity.
7. Markets change – Patterns of volatility and trending are always shifting, and they change across multiple time frames. Because of this, no single trading method will be successful across the board for a given market. The successful trader not only masters markets, but masters the changes in those markets.
8. Even the best traders have periods of drawdown – As markets change, the best traders go through a process of relearning. The ones who succeed are the ones who save their money during the good times so that they can financially survive the lean periods.
9. The market you’re in counts as much toward performance as your trading method – Some markets are more volatile and trendy than others; some have more distinct patterns than others. Finding the right fit between trader, trading method, and market is key.
10. Execution and trade management count – A surprising degree of long-term trading success comes from getting good prices on entry and exit. The single best predictor of trading failure is when the average P/L of losing trades exceeds the average P/L of winners.
Well, I’ve already hit ten and I have at least ten more I could jot down. Number 11 would be that successful performance mentors have content expertise in their particular domain. What I mean by that is that teachers of concert musicians themselves have experience as musicians; basketball coaches invariably have played the sport themselves. You learn trading by seeing your mentor trade and by having your mentor observe your trading. The right mentorship goes a long way toward shortening learning curves.
Figure it out: what proportion of baseball players, golfers, actresses, chess players, singers, or bicyclists can make a consistent living from their performance activities? Is trading really so much easier than those activities? The stark reality is that expertise in any performance field is the exception, not the rule, requiring dedicated practice and training. If you are emotionally prepared for the learning curve—and excited by the challenge—you are well ahead of the game. Start with finding the Three M’s: right methods, markets, and mentors. Those are the foundation of success, upon which you build skills and experience. Enjoy the journey! 
Written by:  Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. 
What do you think?

Saturday, 1 October 2016

Trade Forex Like a Sniper…Not a Machine Gunner

  
Today’s Forex Lesson is “Awesome”. In fact, It’s probably one
of my best trading lessons I have ever written. It took me at least 2 days of brain power and probably 20 coffees.  Please pay it forward, share it with others. Enjoy.
A sniper in the military has an edge over his or her enemy; their edge is unwavering patience, mastery of their weapon, and the ability to remain consciously in control of their mind and body for long periods of time in high-stress situations. We can apply these same concepts to Forex trading…
Forex trading is very similar…you need a trading edge (weapon), you have to master this edge, you need to develop and maintain rigid self-discipline and control, and you have to execute your edge flawlessly in the face of constant temptation to over-trade and over-leverage. Now, trading is nowhere near as stressful as war, but it still requires conscious control of mind and body.
Those traders who learn to pick and choose their trades wisely, trading like a Forex “sniper”, are typically the ones who succeed long-term, whereas those traders who act like machine-gun traders by shooting at everything they see (trading too much), tend to run out of ammo (money) very quickly and fail to accomplish their goals in the market. Let’s discuss how you can learn to trade like a sniper instead of shooting at everything (taking every trade) that comes your way…
• Accept that less is more in Forex trading
One of the things that we traders can learn from a sniper in the military is that in certain situations less is indeed more. Forex trading is definitely a “situation” where less is more. However, it is very common for beginning traders to feel that more is better; more Forex indicators, more trades, more analyzing, more money on useless trading robots, etc.
What is the result of such misinformed beliefs? The result is almost always over-trading; indeed, most beginning Forex traders are like machine-gunners; spraying bullets (money) at everything they deem to be a trade and likely causing more damage to their trading accounts than good. The first step that you need to make if you want to trade more like a sniper and less like a machine-gunner, is to truly accept that less is more in Forex trading.
Just like a sniper waits patiently for his or her pre-determined target to come into view; you need to learn how to wait patiently for your pre-defined trading edge to show itself in the market. As price action traders we have a very effective trading edge that allows us great opportunity to trade the market with sniper-like precision, and the daily charts provide the best “battleground” for us to execute our edge on.

• Higher time frames
As I mentioned previously, the daily chart should be your “battleground” for developing your ability to become a Forex sniper. Why, you ask? Because it is the daily chart that gives us the “highest value” or highest-probability targets when compared to any time frame below it. Weekly charts are also accurate, but they don’t give us enough targets each month and they are less practical to trade than the daily chart.
These targets are price action setups, and you should think of them as higher-value on the higher time frames, because in reality the higher the time frame the higher-probability the setup becomes. This is the primary reason that trading higher time frames drastically increases trading success. Think about it this way; a sniper is on a pre-planned mission to take out high-value targets that can change the course of a war, and in Forex trading you should be looking for the highest-probability trade setups that can have the greatest positive impact on your track record.
Machine-gun trading the lower time frames is not going to do anything but cause you to lose all your ammo or money a lot faster than you think. There is really no sense in ever trading any time frame below the 1hr chart since the value or probability of the targets or setups decreases dramatically as you move lower in time frame. You want to stick to the high-value or high-probability setups of the daily chart as much as possible, and especially while you are still learning to trade.

• Patience
patience2If there is one thing that a sniper in the military definitely IS, it’s patient. Patience is like the “magic” ingredient that makes everything work for a sniper in the military, and it is also the “magic” ingredient that you will need to use if you want to become a Forex sniper. Most beginning traders lose money in the markets, and most beginning traders are also anything BUT patient. See the connection here?
There is a tendency for traders to want to “force” the issue of trading by manifesting signals that aren’t really there or by jumping into a signal that has not closed out yet. When it comes to money it is human nature to be impatient, this is otherwise known as greed, but if you don’t learn to become a patient Forex trader, you will never forge the type of overall self-control that it takes to succeed as a Forex trader and become a Forex sniper.

• Mastery of strategy
A sniper will train for years to sharpen and perfect his or her shooting skills, and a sniper knows exactly what their target looks like and pulls the trigger without hesitation. Similarly, you will need to “train” with the particular Forex trading strategy you choose to employ in the markets so that you know EXACTLY what you are looking for every time you open your charts. However, you will need to do more than that; you will need to truly MASTER the Forex trading strategy that you choose, because if you don’t master it, you will never achieve your full potential as a Forex sniper.
Mastering a trading strategy begins with education. If you choose to employ high-probability price action trading strategies, I can provide you with the Forex trading training you will need. However, you must put in the time and effort to learn and master it; I cannot do this for you. You need to be realistic about this, it will take time; it takes time to become a master at anything, and Forex trading is no different. But, if you put in the necessary time and take advantage of the insights discussed in this article, you will begin trading like a sniper sooner than you might think.
• Developing a sniper-like Forex trading mindset
Sniper-like Forex trading breeds confidence and discipline. The more you strive to trade like a sniper and less like a machine-gunner, the more your Forex trading confidence and discipline will improve. This is because you will be rewarded for patience, and as you start to see your patience pay off over time, you will want to maintain it.
It is the initial stages of developing a sniper-like Forex trading mindset that most traders fail at, usually because they do not understand the power of patience and discipline. It tends to feel better to be a machine-gun trader because you feel powerful and “in control”. The problem with this mindset is that you can never control the market, in fact, the more you try to control the Forex market the more it will actually control you. The only thing you CAN control is yourself by learning to trade like a sniper, and if you do this you will significantly increase your chances of success as a Forex trader. 
Quality over Quantity, 
will you filter your trade to get the best trading idea? 

Source by: Nail Fuller